(Reprint from: WIFO-Monatsberichte, Vol. 86, No. 5, May 2013) Zusammenfassung 2012 entwickelte sich die Wirtschaft in den Ländern Mittel-, Ost- und Südosteuropas insgesamt enttäuschend. Aufgrund der Stagnation der Exporte und der gedämpften Binnennachfrage gerieten acht Länder der Region in die Rezession (Tschechien, Ungarn, Slowenien und die meisten Westbalkanländer). In den anderen Ländern wuchs das BIP zwar, aber allgemein nur schwach. Auch in Ländern, deren Wirtschaft bisher von der Krise im Euro-Raum nicht betroffen gewesen war (z. B. Russland, Polen, Ukraine, Türkei), verlangsamte si...more

Content The first part of the publication contains an analysis of the latest FDI trends. The analysis highlights the modest recovery of FDI in 2011. The second part of the publication contains two sets of tables: Tables I: total flow and stock data, FDI flow by components and FDI income, FDI per capita and other FDI reference parameter (2004-2012) Tables II: detailed FDI data by economic activity and by country (last four years) ...more

(Reprint from: WIFO-Monatsberichte, Vol. 86, No. 5, May 2013) Zusammenfassung 2012 entwickelte sich die Wirtschaft in den Ländern Mittel-, Ost- und Südosteuropas insgesamt enttäuschend. Aufgrund der Stagnation der Exporte und der gedämpften Binnennachfrage gerieten acht Länder der Region in die Rezession (Tschechien, Ungarn, Slowenien und die meisten Westbalkanländer). In den anderen Ländern wuchs das BIP zwar, aber allgemein nur schwach. Auch in Ländern, deren Wirtschaft bisher von der Krise im Euro-Raum nicht betroffen gewesen war (z. B. Russland, Polen, Ukraine, Türkei), verlangsamte si...more

Summary The protracted recession in the euro area will continue to be a drag on the economic growth of most CESEE countries in 2013. By and large, those countries are small open economies held hostage to the excessive fiscal austerity pursued in the euro area and the sluggish progress on the part of its policy-makers in adequately addressing the structural roots of the crisis. At the same time, the private sector demand in the CESEE countries is unlikely to recover substantially in the near term either. Wherever there will be an increase in investments, it will be primarily funded via public...more

Turkey experienced a strong slowdown of growth to 2.9% in 2012 compared to 9.0% in 2010 and 8.5% in 2011. This was mostly due to policy reactions (particularly monetary policy) to an overheat- ing economy characterized by very fast credit growth and sharply negative current accounts devel- opments. Monetary policy has now eased somewhat, inflation has come down, and we expect Tur- key to resume growth at 3.8% in 2013, 4.5% in 2014 and 5.0% in 2015. ...more

Financial balances of the private, foreign and public sectors: long-term tendencies for the European Union (by Roman Römisch; pp. 1-6) Keywords: fiscal policy, budget deficits, investments and savings, public-private balances Countries covered: European Union Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Labour hoarding during the crisis: Evidence for selected new member states from the Financial Crisis Survey (by Sandra M. Leitner and Robert Stehrer; pp. 7-13) Keywords: labour hoarding, financial crisis, firm-level analysis Countries covered: Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, ...more

(Reprint from: WIFO-Monatsberichte, Vol. 85, No. 5, May 2012) Zusammenfassung Die gegenwärtige Wirtschaftskrise weist alle jene Merkmale auf, die mit finanziellen, verschuldungsbezogenen und strukturellen Aspekten von Leistungsbilanzkrisen verbunden werden. Daraus ergeben sich dauerhaft dämpfende Effekte für die Entwicklung der Gesamtnachfrage in den mittel-, ost- und südosteuropäischen Ländern, sodass sich eine nachhaltige Erholung verzögert. Die vorübergehende Belebung 2010/11 war insbesondere vom Export getragen. Deutliche Entwicklungsunterschiede zwischen den einzelnen Ländern Ostmitte...more

For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia) will suffer a mild recession or come close to it (Bulgaria, Romania, Montenegro). 2013 will be characterized by external imbalances developing anew in some countries, although these are not expected to culminate in a repetition of precipitate and disorderly rebalancing crises. The imbalances, if allowed to widen, may come to a sticky end later. The fiscal consolidation in many CESEE countries is pursued despite the revealed weakness of private consumption and investment, amid signs of flagging demand for CESEE exports....more

Three phenomena are topical features of the Turkish economy: relatively low real GDP growth after a spectacular growth bonanza in 2010-11; relatively high, albeit decelerating, inflation; and a somewhat diminished, though still high current account deficit. This deficit, which is of a structural nature, raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of high growth. This notwithstanding, growth may re-accelerate in 2013 and 2014, if external circumstances allow for this. In recent years, Turkey's exporters have been successful in selling to non-EU countries, and this is likely to continue during the next few years. Slow growth or stagnation in the EU has an impact on Turkey, but not necessarily an overwhelming one....more

Content data in Excel, CSV, TSV, HTML time series: from 1990 onwards (as far as available) detailed breakdown by industry (NACE Rev. 1 / NACE Rev. 2, 2-digit numeric code) for inward/outward stock FDI inflow/outflow by activity (NACE Rev. 1 A-Q, DA-DN, 15-37) and by home/host country FDI stock by form PDF version of the publication: Short-lived Recovery is included....more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) presents an analysis of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 22 Central, East and Southeast European countries based on the latest update of its database. FDI continues to be of great significance for the development of the former transition economies. The domestic engines of economic growth are still weak, and fiscal consolidation provides a drag on the economies. The short-lived recovery in 2011 was based mainly on external demand, which upgraded the importance of foreign investors, as they generate a major part of exports. ...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled New Divide(s) in Europe?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. The present economic crisis bears all the familiar hallmarks of the financial, debt-related and structural aspects of current account crises. All these aspects have lasting level effects and recovery can be very protracted. Export-led growth was an important feature of the recovery period 2010-2011, yet signi...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

In einem speziellen Kapitel („Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging“) des Konjunkturberichtes "Recovery: Limp and Battered" wird die Verschuldungsdynamik nach Sektoren (Haushalte, Unternehmen, Staat) vor und nach dem Ausbruch der Finanzkrise untersucht und mit den GIPS-Ländern (Griechenland, Irland, Portugal, Spanien) verglichen. Die Last der privaten Verschuldung hat wichtige Konsequenzen für das Ausgaben- und Sparverhalten des Haushalts- und Unternehmenssektors und damit für die Entwicklung der Inlandsnachfrage (Konsum und Investitionen). Dabei zeigen sich sehr unterschiedliche Muste...more

In a special chapter ("Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging") of the wiiw Forecast "Recovery: Limp and Battered", the debt developments of the private (households, corporate) and public sectors before and after the start of the financial crisis are examined and compared with those in the GIPS countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain). The burden of the build-up of private sector debt before the crisis has important consequences for spending and savings behaviour of households and enterprises and hence for the development of domestic demand (consumption and investment). In this resp...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery – in Low Gear across Tough Terrain, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. All Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) countries will return to growth in 2011. The post-crisis GDP growth will be slower than before and not suffice to generate additional jobs. The role of external demand gradually weakens, while both household consumption and gross fixed inves...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Will exports prevail over austerity?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe, and China The Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) economies will experience on average a minor rebound of economic growth to 1% in 2010 which will speed up to 2.5% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012. GDP growth will be higher in the CIS countries and in Turkey, about average in the Central European N...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Crisis Is Over, but Problems Loom Ahead, analyses recent economic developments and short- and medium-term prospects of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe including Turkey, as well as Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and China. Most countries in Central, East and Southeast Europe have emerged from the trough of the crisis already at the end of 2009. Several leading indicators point to a modest upswing. All countries in the regio...more