In 2013 the Czech economy is exposed to a number of risks. Deep recession in the major export markets would have the most debilitating effects on the Czech economy. The continuing fiscal con- solidation, which is likely to take place, could produce effects that are hard to calculate. Other risks do not seem serious. Monetary policy is not going to make irresponsible moves while the country’s banks, corporate non-financial and household sectors are financially sound and resilient to imagina- ble disturbances....more

The Hungarian economy re-entered recession in 2012; the vision to put the economy to a new growth path with a growth rate of 5% to 7% has given way to a bitter struggle to keep the general government deficit below 3% of the GDP in order to get released from the excessive deficit proce- dure. Despite an improvement in important fiscal indicators, Hungary’s position has remained fragile, as an important part of the improvement is due to temporary consolidation measures and not to genuine reforms....more

In 2013 the Czech economy is exposed to a number of risks. Deep recession in the major export markets would have the most debilitating effects on the Czech economy. The continuing fiscal con- solidation, which is likely to take place, could produce effects that are hard to calculate. Other risks do not seem serious. Monetary policy is not going to make irresponsible moves while the country’s banks, corporate non-financial and household sectors are financially sound and resilient to imagina- ble disturbances....more

Slovenia’s economy will face another year of recession in 2013 and should finally rebound in 2014 provided a strengthening of external demand and a recovery of investment activities. Restructuring of the banking sector, deleveraging of companies and fiscal consolidation will remain the most chal- lenging tasks for the Slovenian authorities....more

Prospects for Slovakia are less promising this year. Exceptionally high growth of production in the transport equipment sector and of its exports caused strong GDP growth in 2012, which will not be repeated this year. Due to this level effect GDP growth will slow down in 2013. However, net exports will probably stay the main driver of growth, supported by export markets outside the EU, which substitute for some export shortfalls coming from depressed European markets....more

Individual chapter in Excel format of the Handbook of Statistics 2012 - Excel edition....more

The Czech economy is entering a recession whose depth and duration will partly depend on the euro area developments. The recession may be moderated by the Czech currency’s relative weakness. While the financial conditions and the monetary policy are essentially conducive to growth, the untimely – and actually unnecessary – fiscal consolidation implemented is the primary determinant of the overall poor performance of the real economy. The prospects for 2013 and 2014 may look better because by that time the fiscal consolidation will be either successfully completed – or discontinued....more

Given the decline in both consumption and investments and in view of the budget consolidation measures already introduced or still in the pipeline, recession looms large in Hungary. Positive contribution of net exports has not been enough to sustain economic growth. The question as to when (if at all) the government will conclude an agreement on the financial assistance package with the IMF and the EU that the economy so badly needs is still open, as is the question whether the government will be prepared to adjust its (economic and other) policies to comply with the international community’s expectations....more

Fiscal consolidation is likely to slow down growth in Poland in the coming years. The economy still benefits from its size, versatility and relative closeness – as well as from its exchange rate and labour market flexibility. The good financial standing of the business and banking sector should support growth. However, the ambitious nature of the incipient fiscal consolidation programme and the return of restrictive monetary policy will act as brakes on growth....more

Given the economic deterioration in Slovenia’s most important EU trading partners and the need of fiscal consolidation Slovenia will remain in recession in 2012 and rebound only slowly thereafter. The corporate and household sectors will continue to deleverage and asset quality of the ailing banking sector has to be strengthened. Returning recession will exert upward pressure on the unemployment rate not only in 2012 but probably in 2013 as well. Consequently household consumption growth will remain subdued....more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) presents an analysis of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 22 Central, East and Southeast European countries based on the latest update of its database. FDI continues to be of great significance for the development of the former transition economies. The domestic engines of economic growth are still weak, and fiscal consolidation provides a drag on the economies. The short-lived recovery in 2011 was based mainly on external demand, which upgraded the importance of foreign investors, as they generate a major part of exports. ...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled New Divide(s) in Europe?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. The present economic crisis bears all the familiar hallmarks of the financial, debt-related and structural aspects of current account crises. All these aspects have lasting level effects and recovery can be very protracted. Export-led growth was an important feature of the recovery period 2010-2011, yet signi...more

Presentation of wiiw's latest growth forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe for the period 2010-2013. Presentation of the new wiiw Handbook of Statistics 2011. ...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

In einem speziellen Kapitel („Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging“) des Konjunkturberichtes "Recovery: Limp and Battered" wird die Verschuldungsdynamik nach Sektoren (Haushalte, Unternehmen, Staat) vor und nach dem Ausbruch der Finanzkrise untersucht und mit den GIPS-Ländern (Griechenland, Irland, Portugal, Spanien) verglichen. Die Last der privaten Verschuldung hat wichtige Konsequenzen für das Ausgaben- und Sparverhalten des Haushalts- und Unternehmenssektors und damit für die Entwicklung der Inlandsnachfrage (Konsum und Investitionen). Dabei zeigen sich sehr unterschiedliche Muste...more

In a special chapter ("Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging") of the wiiw Forecast "Recovery: Limp and Battered", the debt developments of the private (households, corporate) and public sectors before and after the start of the financial crisis are examined and compared with those in the GIPS countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain). The burden of the build-up of private sector debt before the crisis has important consequences for spending and savings behaviour of households and enterprises and hence for the development of domestic demand (consumption and investment). In this resp...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) presents an analysis of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 20 Central, East and Southeast European countries based on the latest update of its database. FDI is still of great importance for the development of CEECs especially as the domestic engines of economic growth are still weak, and fiscal consolidation drags on many of the economies. The economic recovery that has started in the region is mainly based on external demand, which has upgraded the role of foreign investors whose subsidiaries produce the main part of exp...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery – in Low Gear across Tough Terrain, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. All Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) countries will return to growth in 2011. The post-crisis GDP growth will be slower than before and not suffice to generate additional jobs. The role of external demand gradually weakens, while both household consumption and gross fixed inves...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Will exports prevail over austerity?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe, and China The Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) economies will experience on average a minor rebound of economic growth to 1% in 2010 which will speed up to 2.5% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012. GDP growth will be higher in the CIS countries and in Turkey, about average in the Central European N...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Crisis Is Over, but Problems Loom Ahead, analyses recent economic developments and short- and medium-term prospects of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe including Turkey, as well as Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and China. Most countries in Central, East and Southeast Europe have emerged from the trough of the crisis already at the end of 2009. Several leading indicators point to a modest upswing. All countries in the regio...more

wiiw presents its new analysis of FDI developments in 20 Central, East and Southeast European countries, based on the latest update of the wiiw FDI Database. German: Das wiiw präsentiert seine aktuelle Analyse der Entwicklung der Auslandsinvestitionen in Zentral-, Ost- und Südosteuropa, sowie den Update der "FDI Database" mit detaillierten Statistiken über Auslandsinvestitionen in 20 Ländern....more

The current global economic crisis is affecting the countries of Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CEE and SEE) in some ways more severely than other European countries. Moreover these economies face more con-straints in putting the types of policies in place which are currently pursued in most of Western Europe, the USA and Japan. However, policies designed to stabilize the banking system and provide fiscal stimulus have as much justifi-cation to be pursued in these economies as in the higher-income countries. Therefore a coordinated approach by EU institutions and EU governments (in ...more

Current financial developments and global imbalances of savings and investments are increasingly affecting economic developments. The panel will discuss the consequences for transition countries in Central, East and Southeast Europe. Many of these countries exhibit high credit growth with current account deficits. That raises concerns about the soundness of their financial systems and of other vulnerabilities with important policy implications. There are concerns that some of these economies are overheating and that risks to macroeconomic stability are increasing. Speakers will address the ris...more