Bulgaria’s economy kept losing steam in the first quarter of 2012 against the backdrop of weakening exports and weak domestic demand. The fiscal stance remains under the reigns of an austerity strive in the absence of policy creativity. There is little chance of reversing this situation in the short run so current expectations are that the economy is likely to stagnate in 2012....more

Content data in Excel, CSV, TSV, HTML time series: from 1990 onwards (as far as available) detailed breakdown by industry (NACE Rev. 1 / NACE Rev. 2, 2-digit numeric code) for inward/outward stock FDI inflow/outflow by activity (NACE Rev. 1 A-Q, DA-DN, 15-37) and by home/host country FDI stock by form PDF version of the publication: Short-lived Recovery is included....more

Content The first part of the publication contains an analysis of the latest FDI trends. The analysis highlights the temporary recovery of FDI in 2011. The second part of the publication contains two sets of tables: Tables I: total flow and stock data, FDI flow by form and FDI income, FDI per capita and other FDI reference parameter (2003-2011) Tables II: detailed FDI data by economic activity and by country (last four years) ...more

The present economic crisis bears all the familiar hallmarks of the financial, debt-related and structural aspects of current account crises. All these aspects have lasting level effects and recovery can be very protracted. Export-led growth was an important feature of the recovery period 2010-2011, yet significant inter-country differences persisted. A few countries with severe pre-crisis imbalances (Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic states) enjoyed reasonable export growth over that period, while other structurally weak economies on the European periphery (Western Balkan countries and the Southern EU) fared badly in that respect. The latter group of countries will continue to lag behind also in the forecast period 2012-2014, while some of the Central European economies (Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia) will manage to stay out of the vicious circle of low growth, high interest rates and unsustainable debt. These three countries, as well as the Baltic states, are expected to grow by about 3% in the years to come (still significantly below the trend growth rates before the crisis). The remaining EU new member states as well as the Western Balkan countries will achieve only about half of this growth. Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will grow by rates of up to 5%....more

In Bulgaria, GDP increased by 1.6% in 2011 but economic activity was weakening in the final months. While the export performance for the year as a whole was robust, sluggish domestic demand was a drag on economic growth. The process of macroeconomic rebalancing in 2011 was accompanied by a net outflow of financial resources. Short-term prospects have deteriorated and the economy is likely to stagnate in 2012....more

Poland: new government, but not-so-new policy? (by Leon Podkaminer; pp. 1-2 ) Keywords: fiscal policy, fiscal consolidation Countries covered: Poland Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Banks in Poland should be under domestic control (by Stefan Kawalec; pp. 3-10) Keywords: banking system ownership, deleveraging Countries covered: Poland Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy; Sectoral studies Bulgaria: fiscal space and competitiveness (by Vladimir Gligorov and Michael Landesmann; pp. 11-17) Keywords: competitiveness, fiscal policy Countries covered: Bulgaria ...more

18 countries covered in detail Time series given for 2000, 2005, 2007-2010, graphs range from 2006 to September 2011 Activity breakdown by NACE Rev. 2 classification included for the majority of countries Key indicators are now available also for neighbouring countries (AT, D) and for other cohesion countries (GR, IR, PT) allowing for easy cross-country comparisons ...more

The Handbook of Statistics - Excel version is published annually and contains revised, updated and expanded annual and monthly statistics. Time series and related tables are extracted from the Annual, Monthly and Foreign Direct Investment Databases maintained and regularly updated by wiiw. The download or CD-ROM includes: PDF (with identical content as the hardcopy). Content 18 countries covered in detail Time series in MS Excel format run from 1990-2010 (as far as available) New features: Activity breakdown by NACE Rev. 2 classification included for the majority of count...more

Individual chapter in Excel format of the Handbook of Statistics 2011 - Excel edition....more

Individual chapter in Excel format of the Handbook of Statistics 2011 - Excel edition. ...more

Main messages: Differentiated economic development in CESEE countries Strength/weakness of export sector is crucial External demand and deleveraging depress domestic demand Labour market problems increase SEE: Persistent solvency and liquidity problems Growth remains below potential absent external and policy improvements ...more

Main messages: Differentiated economic development in CESEE countries Strength/weakness of export sector is crucial External demand and deleveraging depress domestic demand Labour market problems increase SEE: Persistent solvency and liquidity problems Growth remains below potential absent external and policy improvements ...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) presents an analysis of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 22 Central, East and Southeast European countries based on the latest update of its database. FDI continues to be of great significance for the development of the former transition economies. The domestic engines of economic growth are still weak, and fiscal consolidation provides a drag on the economies. The short-lived recovery in 2011 was based mainly on external demand, which upgraded the importance of foreign investors, as they generate a major part of exports. ...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled New Divide(s) in Europe?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. The present economic crisis bears all the familiar hallmarks of the financial, debt-related and structural aspects of current account crises. All these aspects have lasting level effects and recovery can be very protracted. Export-led growth was an important feature of the recovery period 2010-2011, yet signi...more

Presentation of wiiw's latest growth forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe for the period 2010-2013. Presentation of the new wiiw Handbook of Statistics 2011. ...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

In einem speziellen Kapitel („Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging“) des Konjunkturberichtes "Recovery: Limp and Battered" wird die Verschuldungsdynamik nach Sektoren (Haushalte, Unternehmen, Staat) vor und nach dem Ausbruch der Finanzkrise untersucht und mit den GIPS-Ländern (Griechenland, Irland, Portugal, Spanien) verglichen. Die Last der privaten Verschuldung hat wichtige Konsequenzen für das Ausgaben- und Sparverhalten des Haushalts- und Unternehmenssektors und damit für die Entwicklung der Inlandsnachfrage (Konsum und Investitionen). Dabei zeigen sich sehr unterschiedliche Muste...more

In a special chapter ("Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging") of the wiiw Forecast "Recovery: Limp and Battered", the debt developments of the private (households, corporate) and public sectors before and after the start of the financial crisis are examined and compared with those in the GIPS countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain). The burden of the build-up of private sector debt before the crisis has important consequences for spending and savings behaviour of households and enterprises and hence for the development of domestic demand (consumption and investment). In this resp...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) presents an analysis of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 20 Central, East and Southeast European countries based on the latest update of its database. FDI is still of great importance for the development of CEECs especially as the domestic engines of economic growth are still weak, and fiscal consolidation drags on many of the economies. The economic recovery that has started in the region is mainly based on external demand, which has upgraded the role of foreign investors whose subsidiaries produce the main part of exp...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery – in Low Gear across Tough Terrain, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. All Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) countries will return to growth in 2011. The post-crisis GDP growth will be slower than before and not suffice to generate additional jobs. The role of external demand gradually weakens, while both household consumption and gross fixed inves...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Will exports prevail over austerity?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe, and China The Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) economies will experience on average a minor rebound of economic growth to 1% in 2010 which will speed up to 2.5% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012. GDP growth will be higher in the CIS countries and in Turkey, about average in the Central European N...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Crisis Is Over, but Problems Loom Ahead, analyses recent economic developments and short- and medium-term prospects of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe including Turkey, as well as Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and China. Most countries in Central, East and Southeast Europe have emerged from the trough of the crisis already at the end of 2009. Several leading indicators point to a modest upswing. All countries in the regio...more

wiiw presents its new analysis of FDI developments in 20 Central, East and Southeast European countries, based on the latest update of the wiiw FDI Database. German: Das wiiw präsentiert seine aktuelle Analyse der Entwicklung der Auslandsinvestitionen in Zentral-, Ost- und Südosteuropa, sowie den Update der "FDI Database" mit detaillierten Statistiken über Auslandsinvestitionen in 20 Ländern....more

Current financial developments and global imbalances of savings and investments are increasingly affecting economic developments. The panel will discuss the consequences for transition countries in Central, East and Southeast Europe. Many of these countries exhibit high credit growth with current account deficits. That raises concerns about the soundness of their financial systems and of other vulnerabilities with important policy implications. There are concerns that some of these economies are overheating and that risks to macroeconomic stability are increasing. Speakers will address the ris...more