Regional investment policy impacts on FDI location in Poland (by Gábor Hunya; pp. 1-6 ) Keywords: FDI, investment policy, regional Countries covered: Poland Topics: International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI; Regional Development Creating fiscal space in the European Monetary Union (by Jan Toporowski; pp. 7-10 ) Keywords: EMU, taxation, financial sector Countries covered: European Union Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Is there evidence of increasing fragmentation in the banking system of the euro area? (by Olga Pindyuk; pp. 11-13) Keywords: banking system, ...more

Summary The protracted recession in the euro area will continue to be a drag on the economic growth of most CESEE countries in 2013. By and large, those countries are small open economies held hostage to the excessive fiscal austerity pursued in the euro area and the sluggish progress on the part of its policy-makers in adequately addressing the structural roots of the crisis. At the same time, the private sector demand in the CESEE countries is unlikely to recover substantially in the near term either. Wherever there will be an increase in investments, it will be primarily funded via public...more

Summary The paper undertakes an empirical analytical assessment of some of the determinants of economic growth in the EU during the past decade, with a specific focus on the Central and Eastern European (CEE) members of the EU. The methodology is based on a combination of different statistical methods and techniques including descriptive statistics and stylised facts as well as some widely used empirical models of growth, including the testing of convergence hypotheses and running panel growth regressions. During the decade prior to the global economic and financial crisis, the growth m...more

The new Multiannual Financial Framework of the European Union for 2014-2020: a comment (by Sándor Richter; pp. 1-3) Keywords: financial framework Countries covered: EU Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Labour costs, external competitiveness and economic growth in new EU member states (by Vasily Astrov; pp. 4-11) Keywords: labour costs, competitiveness, inflation Countries covered: NMS Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy, International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI Global values – new reflections and new data on an old debate (by Arno Tausch; pp. 12-18...more

The European Commission grossly underestimates the effects of German domestic demand expansion (by Leon Podkaminer; pp. 1-2) Keywords: income elasticity of imports, external imbalances Countries covered: Germany, EU Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy, International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI The new North-South divide in Europe – can the European convergence model be resuscitated? (by Michael Landesmann; pp. 3-13) Keywords: convergence model Countries covered: EU Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy; International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI Change...more

Draghi’s démarche and the nightmare of the Bundesbank (by Jan Toporowski; pp. 1-2) Keywords: monetary policy, monetary union, euro, bonds’ buyout Countries covered: EU Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Trade does not drive global growth (by Leon Podkaminer; pp. 3-8) Keywords: global growth, global trade, VEC Countries covered: The World Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy, International Trade A note on Kazakhstan’s Oil Fund (by Vasily Astrov; pp. 9-14) Keywords: sovereign wealth, oil revenue Countries covered: Kazakhstan Topics: Sectoral studies ...more

(Report based on Background Study for European Competitiveness Report 2012, see http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/industrial-competitiveness/competitiveness-analysis/european-competitiveness-report/index_en.htm) Summary The ongoing internationalization of production has altered the economic landscape. Many products used to be produced locally using inputs drawn largely from the domestic economy, which implied that most of the value chains or production processes used to be located in the country where a firm had its headquarters. Technological development has facilitated the geogra...more

(Report based on Background Study for European Competitiveness Report 2012, see http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/industrial-competitiveness/competitiveness-analysis/european-competitiveness-report/index_en.htm) Summary Countries belonging to the European neighbourhood are highly diverse. Their diversity is multidimensional (geographical, socio-economic, political, cultural, religious, etc.) and the individual dimensions all have important implications for EU policies towards the region(s), for EU institutional relations with individual neighbourhood countries and for these countri...more

A multi-level approach to test for the determinants of income polarization both at the household as well as the country level is applied to a panel of about 300,000 households in EU countries over the period of 2003-2009. Among the policy relevant macro variables, higher progressive labour taxation and to a certain extent capital taxation is positively correlated with lower levels of income polarization. Also public expenditures on social protection, education and economic subsidies are related to a lower degree of polarization. Finally, lower unemployment, a stronger industrial base and more ...more

Trade and economic integration in the CIS: an evaluation (by Vasily Astrov, Peter Havlik and Olga Pindyuk; pp. 1-3) Keywords: trade, economic integration Countries covered: CIS Topics: International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI Volume and variety of intra-bloc trade in an expanded European Union (by Neil Foster; pp. 4-10) Keywords: intra-bloc trade, expanded EU Countries covered: EU Topics: International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI The gravity of cross-border R&D expenditure (by Sandra M. Leitner, Robert Stehrer and Bernhard Dachs; pp. 11-21) Keywords: R&D, gravit...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled New Divide(s) in Europe?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. The present economic crisis bears all the familiar hallmarks of the financial, debt-related and structural aspects of current account crises. All these aspects have lasting level effects and recovery can be very protracted. Export-led growth was an important feature of the recovery period 2010-2011, yet signi...more

Karl Pichelmann, European Commission The EU is being mired in the most serious economic crisis since its creation. The euro area, in particular, has found itself in the middle of an almost perfect storm: (i) A vicious circle of government debt crisis, banking instabilities and weakening economic activity, each feeding each other in a dangerous feed-back loop; (ii) This downward spiral comes on top of probably long-lasting deleveraging needs of both public and private economic actors following the financial crisis of 2008/2009; (iii) But already before the crisis, the euro area ...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

In einem speziellen Kapitel („Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging“) des Konjunkturberichtes "Recovery: Limp and Battered" wird die Verschuldungsdynamik nach Sektoren (Haushalte, Unternehmen, Staat) vor und nach dem Ausbruch der Finanzkrise untersucht und mit den GIPS-Ländern (Griechenland, Irland, Portugal, Spanien) verglichen. Die Last der privaten Verschuldung hat wichtige Konsequenzen für das Ausgaben- und Sparverhalten des Haushalts- und Unternehmenssektors und damit für die Entwicklung der Inlandsnachfrage (Konsum und Investitionen). Dabei zeigen sich sehr unterschiedliche Muste...more

In a special chapter ("Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging") of the wiiw Forecast "Recovery: Limp and Battered", the debt developments of the private (households, corporate) and public sectors before and after the start of the financial crisis are examined and compared with those in the GIPS countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain). The burden of the build-up of private sector debt before the crisis has important consequences for spending and savings behaviour of households and enterprises and hence for the development of domestic demand (consumption and investment). In this resp...more

The free movement of persons is a fundamental right guaranteed to European Union (EU) citizens which is about to change not only the size of migration flows but also the behavior of migrants regarding the duration of stay. In our empirical analysis we show that migrants who intend to live only temporary in Germany are more likely to remit a higher amount of money. As we have seen in the UK, strong remittances flows provoke fears among natives of a loss in domestic purchasing power. Using a general equilibrium model with altruistic households and imperfect labor markets, we show that Germany wi...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery – in Low Gear across Tough Terrain, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. All Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) countries will return to growth in 2011. The post-crisis GDP growth will be slower than before and not suffice to generate additional jobs. The role of external demand gradually weakens, while both household consumption and gross fixed inves...more

In the process of catching up to the EU income levels, emerging European economies built up external imbalances and attracted large capital inflows prior to the global financial crisis. Many attribute the severity of the crisis to excessive capital inflows. This paper examines the effect of structural distribution of FDI on external vulnerability - trade account balance in particular - to see if a concentration in FDI in nontradables leads to large external imbalance as is often perceived. Our study finds that this is indeed the case: trade account deficit is reduced by 0.1-0.2 per cent of GDP when a share of tradable FDI to total FDI increases by 1 per cent. We also study what determines the pattern of sectoral distribution of FDI across countries, and draw policy implications for more stable and sustainable growth strategy. ...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Will exports prevail over austerity?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe, and China The Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) economies will experience on average a minor rebound of economic growth to 1% in 2010 which will speed up to 2.5% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012. GDP growth will be higher in the CIS countries and in Turkey, about average in the Central European N...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Crisis Is Over, but Problems Loom Ahead, analyses recent economic developments and short- and medium-term prospects of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe including Turkey, as well as Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and China. Most countries in Central, East and Southeast Europe have emerged from the trough of the crisis already at the end of 2009. Several leading indicators point to a modest upswing. All countries in the regio...more

Cyrille Schwellnus, OECD (with Jens Arnold) This paper uses a stratified sample of firms across Western Europe over the period 1996-2004 to test for the existence of a link between corporate taxation and productivity. Corporate taxes may reduce incentives for productivity-enhancing innovations by reducing their post-tax returns, and may reduce incentives for risk taking by firms. In addition, corporate taxes can increase the user cost of capital and reduce incentives to invest in physical capital, which may affect productivity through technological progress embodied in new physical capital...more