Growth will stabilise in the course of the current year, the upside risks to the forecast being the country’s weak performance in the latter half of the previous year. Growth prospects should improve at a moderate pace in the medium term. Assuming that political stability is assured and reforms are sustained over that period, adjustment of the main GDP components, in tandem with a relatively strong investment performance and continued export growth, should allow on average for real GDP growth in the order of 3% for the next five years or so.
|Main Economic Indicators||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018|
|Population, 1000 persons.||7167||7132||7040||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||2.6||-1.8||0.7||0.9||1.4||.|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||9800||9600||.||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||5.3||-6.5||8.2||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||22.1||19.4||17.0||17.0||17.0||.|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||537||524||506||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||7.8||2.9||1.9||2.0||3.0||.|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-5.5||-6.6||-5.0||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||59.6||70.4||73.8||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-6.1||-6.0||-6.0||-7.0||-6.0||.|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||1548||1500||700||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||75.1||77.3||84.5||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
SERBIA: Investment is the key
in: Mixed Prospects: Consumption Leads Fragile Recovery in the CESEE Core – CIS Stumbles
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2015, November 2015 , pp. 118-120 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 9/2015
Amat Adarov, Fatos Hoxha, Werner Laventure and Isilda Mara
wiiw Monthly Report No. 9, September 2015
47 pages including 3 Tables and 33 Figures