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In Serbia, where fiscal adjustment is urgently required, this year’s recession may at best be followed by stagnation or slow growth in the medium term. The risks are on the downside owing to the need to cut public expenditures rather significantly, the sole dilemma being whether fiscal consolidation will have to be frontloaded. Consumption, investment, and employment will depend on that issue. A certain increase in exports to Russia is forecast; this year, however, exports have in fact declined to date. The regime of sanctions currently emerging in Europe is exposing Serbia to growing pressure from Russia, which the country will find difficult to resist.
|Main Economic Indicators||2011||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016|
|Population, 1000 persons.||7234||7199||7164||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||1.4||-1.0||2.6||-1.0||0.0||1.0|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||9500||9700||9900||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||2.5||-2.2||6.3||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||23.0||23.9||22.1||21.0||23.0||23.0|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||517||508||537||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||11.0||7.8||7.8||2.0||4.0||3.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-4.7||-6.1||-4.7||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||45.4||56.2||59.6||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||.||-11.5||-6.1||-6.2||-6.0||-6.0|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||1949||284||779||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||72.2||81.2||75.4||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
SERBIA: Fiscal dilemma
in: On Thin Ice: CESEE Core Resilient in the Face of EU Stagnation and the Ukraine Crisis
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2014, November 2014 , pp. 95-96 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2014
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Michael Landesmann, Sebastian Leitner, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July 2014
23 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures Details