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Last year delivered a recovery in GDP growth, early estimate 2.4%, which can be attributed to the full rebound of agricultural production and the start of Fiat’s production and export of cars. This and the next couple of years will see a slowdown of growth, with probably slight recession in 2014 and a speed-up to not more than 2% in the medium term, due to the disappearance of these one-time effects. Inflation is decelerating and positive employment effects cannot be expected.
|Main Economic Indicators||2011||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016|
|Population, 1000 persons.||7234||7199||7100||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||1.6||-1.5||2.4||-0.5||1.0||1.9|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||8900||9000||9500||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||2.5||-2.2||6.3||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||23.0||23.9||23.6||24.0||23.0||23.0|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||517||508||537||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||11.0||7.8||7.8||4.0||4.0||3.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-4.9||-6.5||-4.8||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||48.5||59.8||62.2||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-9.1||-10.7||-4.8||-6.0||-6.0||-6.0|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||1949||284||779||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||76.7||86.9||79.5||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
SERBIA: Early elections, then reforms
in: Investment to the Rescue
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2014, March 2014 , pp. 81-82 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 11/2013
Vasily Astrov, Vladimir Gligorov, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner and Olga Pindyuk
wiiw Monthly Report No. 11, November 2013
38 pages including 17 Tables Details