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Prospect for this year will depend on the measures that will be taken before the summer recess. If the intended cuts in public spending materialise, that will affect negatively this year’s growth, which in any case was not projected to be much faster than 2 percent and may be lower now. In the medium term, persistent fiscal and current account worries will make growth depend on exports and foreign investments. Those may keep recovering slowly, but significant speed up of growth is not very likely.
|Main Economic Indicators||2011||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016|
|Population, 1000 persons.||7234||7199||7100||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||1.6||-1.5||2.4||-1.6||1.0||.|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||8900||9000||9500||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||2.5||-2.2||6.3||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||23.0||23.9||23.6||25.0||25.0||.|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||517||508||537||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||11.0||7.8||7.8||5.0||5.0||.|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-4.9||-6.5||-4.8||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||48.5||59.8||62.2||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-9.1||-10.7||-7.0||-7.0||-8.2||.|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||1949||274||700||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||76.7||86.9||79.5||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Serbia: Fiscal and other worries
in: Animal Spirits still Dimmed: Slow Recovery Expected
wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts No. 12, July 2013 , pp. 111-113 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 11/2013
Vasily Astrov, Vladimir Gligorov, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner and Olga Pindyuk
wiiw Monthly Report No. 11, November 2013
38 pages including 17 Tables Details