This report tracks the major geo-economic and geo-strategic ruptures between the EU and Russia on the future patterns of gas supplies and shipping routes to the EU and the Western Balkans. It identifies the objectives and interests of the actors involved in this struggle: Russia, the EU, various EU members, the countries of the Caspian Basin (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan) and the Middle East (Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Egypt) as well as the Maghreb countries (Algeria, Libya). It analyses in great detail the colliding interests of all actors at the intersection of business and (...more

The Republic of Moldova: short-lived recovery (by G. Hunya, pp. 1-9) Keywords: Moldova, economic policy, economic transition Countries covered: Moldova Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis, Forecasts and Policy Patterns of international trade diversification in the transition economies (by M. Landesmann, pp. 10-16) Keywords: trade diversification, transition economies, competition Countries covered: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan...more

This report counter-poses the patterns of trade specialization and trade diversification of two groups of economies: the new member states of the European Union, NMS, and the follower countries of the Soviet Union, the NIS (Newly Independent States). It is shown that the NIS export structures are characterized by an exceptionally high degree of concentration and a very strong specialization in trade with the EU (towards fuel, metals, and - for a sub-group of NIS economies - labour-intensive commodities). The NMS economies show a much more diversified export structure, there is more evidence fo...more

Net outward investment position of the new member states (by Julia Wörz, pp. 1-9) Countries covered:Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia Topics: Foreign Direct Investment Sources of growth in the CIS (by Garbis Iradian, pp. 10-18) Countries covered:Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis, Forecasts and Policy The troubling economics and politics of the US trade deficit (by Thomas I. Palley, pp. 19-22...more

This paper analyses some of the main factors behind the recent rapid growth in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the prospects for its continuation. Two approaches are used. The first approach uses growth accounting exercises to estimate the total factor productivity (TFP) growth of all transition economies and compare them with other fast-growing economies. The second approach uses panel regression to estimate the determinants of per capita and TFP growth for 90 countries. Both short-run and long run coefficients are estimated using fixed effects, random effects, and two stage ...more