Summary The protracted recession in the euro area will continue to be a drag on the economic growth of most CESEE countries in 2013. By and large, those countries are small open economies held hostage to the excessive fiscal austerity pursued in the euro area and the sluggish progress on the part of its policy-makers in adequately addressing the structural roots of the crisis. At the same time, the private sector demand in the CESEE countries is unlikely to recover substantially in the near term either. Wherever there will be an increase in investments, it will be primarily funded via public...more

For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia) will suffer a mild recession or come close to it (Bulgaria, Romania, Montenegro). 2013 will be characterized by external imbalances developing anew in some countries, although these are not expected to culminate in a repetition of precipitate and disorderly rebalancing crises. The imbalances, if allowed to widen, may come to a sticky end later. The fiscal consolidation in many CESEE countries is pursued despite the revealed weakness of private consumption and investment, amid signs of flagging demand for CESEE exports....more

The present economic crisis bears all the familiar hallmarks of the financial, debt-related and structural aspects of current account crises. All these aspects have lasting level effects and recovery can be very protracted. Export-led growth was an important feature of the recovery period 2010-2011, yet significant inter-country differences persisted. A few countries with severe pre-crisis imbalances (Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic states) enjoyed reasonable export growth over that period, while other structurally weak economies on the European periphery (Western Balkan countries and the Southern EU) fared badly in that respect. The latter group of countries will continue to lag behind also in the forecast period 2012-2014, while some of the Central European economies (Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia) will manage to stay out of the vicious circle of low growth, high interest rates and unsustainable debt. These three countries, as well as the Baltic states, are expected to grow by about 3% in the years to come (still significantly below the trend growth rates before the crisis). The remaining EU new member states as well as the Western Balkan countries will achieve only about half of this growth. Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will grow by rates of up to 5%....more

One year after the onset of the Arab Spring, the transition is clearly at its very beginning. In that, it does not compare with the onset of transition in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) in 1989 or 1990, which was a kind of breakthrough and provided a clear discontinuity with the past in almost all respects. In the majority of cases this has been one more step in the process of systemic change in the CESEE that will take some time to unfold. This Policy Note compares changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) with the processes of reforms and change that took place in the so...more

MENA in transition: any lessons from CESEE? (by Peter Havlik and Sándor Richter; pp. 1-7) Keywords: MENA, transition Countries covered: MENA, CESEE Topics: Other The EU and Russia: both important for Ukraine (by Vasily Astrov; pp. 8-9) Keywords: Ukraine, trade association, Russia, EU Countries covered: Ukraine, Russia, EU Topics: International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI; Other What price nationalism? Economic consequences of the break-up of Yugoslavia (by Vladimir Gligorov; pp. 10-13) Keywords: Yugoslavia break-up, post-Yugoslav countries Countries covered: Slovenia, Croati...more

In the wake of the ‘Arab Spring’ several observers compared the changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to the transition of the former communist countries in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) to parliamentary democracy and market economy starting two decades ago. Relying on the wiiw’s long standing experience in analysing both the centrally planned economic systems and the institutional and economic aspects of transition, the following Policy Note attempts – without claiming to have a detailed knowledge regarding MENA countries at the moment - to find poss...more

For 2011 the wiiw central scenario envisages further improvements in the economic performance of those countries that were still stagnating or contracting in 2010 (Bulgaria, Latvia, Romania, Croatia, Macedonia and Montenegro). However, in those countries that performed reasonably well in 2010 (such as Poland and Slovakia), growth will not accelerate all that much. At a later juncture GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the region, but they will not return to the levels recorded prior to 2007. The relatively rapid growth in terms of the global output expected in 2011 will not of necessit...more

In this report, wiiw researchers Vladimir Gligorov and Michael Landesmann and their co-authors Torbjörn Becker, Zsolt Darvas, Daniel Daianu, Pavle Petrovic, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Dariusz K. Rosati, Andre Sapir and Beatrice Weder di Mauro argue that in view of the depth of integration in Europe, the development model of the central, eastern and south-eastern Europe (CESEE) region, despite its shortcomings, should be preserved. But it should be reformed, with major implications for policymaking both at national and EU levels. If so, what are the required changes? The European think tank Bruegel and...more

After a long period of convergence, Central, East and Southeast Europe experienced a deep recession in 2009. The relatively moderate GDP decline (-3.6%) on average for the new EU member states (NMS) reflects Poland's weight in the group, the only EU country to have recorded positive GDP growth last year (Albania and Kazakhstan registered positive growth rates as well - see Table). In most other countries the catching-up process was interrupted, in particular the Baltic States were thrown several years back - more than Russia and Ukraine. The most conspicuous response to the crisis was a radica...more

Main messages: Differentiated economic development in CESEE countries Strength/weakness of export sector is crucial External demand and deleveraging depress domestic demand Labour market problems increase SEE: Persistent solvency and liquidity problems Growth remains below potential absent external and policy improvements ...more

Main messages: Differentiated economic development in CESEE countries Strength/weakness of export sector is crucial External demand and deleveraging depress domestic demand Labour market problems increase SEE: Persistent solvency and liquidity problems Growth remains below potential absent external and policy improvements ...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled New Divide(s) in Europe?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. The present economic crisis bears all the familiar hallmarks of the financial, debt-related and structural aspects of current account crises. All these aspects have lasting level effects and recovery can be very protracted. Export-led growth was an important feature of the recovery period 2010-2011, yet signi...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

In einem speziellen Kapitel („Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging“) des Konjunkturberichtes "Recovery: Limp and Battered" wird die Verschuldungsdynamik nach Sektoren (Haushalte, Unternehmen, Staat) vor und nach dem Ausbruch der Finanzkrise untersucht und mit den GIPS-Ländern (Griechenland, Irland, Portugal, Spanien) verglichen. Die Last der privaten Verschuldung hat wichtige Konsequenzen für das Ausgaben- und Sparverhalten des Haushalts- und Unternehmenssektors und damit für die Entwicklung der Inlandsnachfrage (Konsum und Investitionen). Dabei zeigen sich sehr unterschiedliche Muste...more

In a special chapter ("Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging") of the wiiw Forecast "Recovery: Limp and Battered", the debt developments of the private (households, corporate) and public sectors before and after the start of the financial crisis are examined and compared with those in the GIPS countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain). The burden of the build-up of private sector debt before the crisis has important consequences for spending and savings behaviour of households and enterprises and hence for the development of domestic demand (consumption and investment). In this resp...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery – in Low Gear across Tough Terrain, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. All Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) countries will return to growth in 2011. The post-crisis GDP growth will be slower than before and not suffice to generate additional jobs. The role of external demand gradually weakens, while both household consumption and gross fixed inves...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Will exports prevail over austerity?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe, and China The Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) economies will experience on average a minor rebound of economic growth to 1% in 2010 which will speed up to 2.5% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012. GDP growth will be higher in the CIS countries and in Turkey, about average in the Central European N...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Crisis Is Over, but Problems Loom Ahead, analyses recent economic developments and short- and medium-term prospects of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe including Turkey, as well as Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and China. Most countries in Central, East and Southeast Europe have emerged from the trough of the crisis already at the end of 2009. Several leading indicators point to a modest upswing. All countries in the regio...more

The presentation will focus on the key factors that contributed to the financial crisis in the United States, the sequence of events that transformed the global economy into a house of cards, the policy responses under the Bush administration and the Obama administration to date, and the challenges that lie ahead. Peter Isard has his PhD in Economics from Stanford University. He held research and management positions at U.S. Federal Reserve Board during 1972-1985, then various managerial positions with the International Monetary Fund during 1985-2008, primarily in the Research Department. He ...more

The recent changes in the IMF approach to crisis management suggest a change in the theoretical model on which operational programmes are to be based. In the programmes negotiated with the Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESE) countries this model change cannot be easily detected, at least not so far. This leads to two questions: how are new ideas and instruments related to the underlying IMF model and what are the assumptions on which the recent programmes with the CESE are based? In the context of these questions, the surveillance criteria are of particular interest; i.e., the r...more