Ukraine: IMF programme off-track
(by Vasily Astrov)
in: Recovery: Limp and Battered, wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts No. 8, July 2011, pp. 119-122
In Ukraine, the economy will continue to recover, benefiting from the newly gained political stability. Relatively good budget performance and favourable financing conditions have reduced the willingness to implement the austerity measures, resulting in a suspension of the IMF stand-by programme. In the short and medium term, we expect a continuation of the current growth path of 4-5% per year, driven largely by domestic demand and accompanied by a moderate widening of current account deficits. The free trade negotiations with the EU have advanced recently; they might come to conclusion by the end of 2011.