Russian Federation: Instability ahead?
(by Peter Havlik)
in: New Divide(s) in Europe?, wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts No. 9, March 2012, pp. 114-118
The Russian GDP grew by more than 4% in 2011 thanks to a robust recovery of
fixed investment, construction and consumer expenditures. The contribution of net
exports to GDP growth was sharply negative (despite a sizeable nominal increase in
trade and current account surplus). wiiw reckons with unspectacular GDP growth
during 2012-2014, assuming no abrupt policy changes or external shocks. Export
revenues will grow rather slowly owing to stagnating volumes of exported oil and
gas; import volumes are expected to grow at a faster rate as household
consumption and investment will gradually pick up, both fuelled by the ongoing real
currency appreciation. In the medium and long run, reforms and investments
(including FDI) may be stimulated by WTO membership, while the attempted
modernisation drive will hardly succeed any time soon. With some luck the annual
CPI inflation may gradually drop to 5% and the budget deficit will remain balanced.
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