HOME » wiiw Seminar in International Economics » The Rise and Fall of International Trade: ...
Julia Wörz, (with Joseph F. Francois), Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Vienna
In this paper we adopt a structuralist approach to analyse the long-run growth of real world exports. We construct a unique dataset combining export, import, output, employment and wage data for 196 countries and 22 manufacturing industries over the period 1995-2009. Decomposing global export growth into its structural components, we find that regional as well as sectoral shifts of emerging economies into more trade intensive activities account for a large part of the increase in world export volume. Once we move the analysis to the level of individual industries, we also find that trade (i.e. exports in our case) does not 'over-react' to output growth. Hence, the often cited rising elasticity of global trade to income can in fact also be explained by changes in the country and industry composition of global trade with more strongly growing economies moving rapidly into more trade-intensive activities, with the elasticity of trade to income at the sectoral level remaining well below one.
wiiw Seminar in International Economics
 |
The Rise and Fall of International Trade: Deconstructing Trade and Value Added (by Joseph F. Francois and Julia Wörz) wiiw Seminar in International Economics 11 November 2010, 2 p.m., Venue: wiiw, 1060 Vienna, Rahlgasse 3 FREE DOWNLOAD Keywords: trade growth, industrial export structure, Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe JEL classification: F14, F15, O52 Countries covered: Central, East and Southeast Europe Topics: International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI |
Julia Wörz, (with Joseph F. Francois), Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Vienna
In this paper we adopt a structuralist approach to analyse the long-run growth of real world exports. We construct a unique dataset combining export, import, output, employment and wage data for 196 countries and 22 manufacturing industries over the period 1995-2009. Decomposing global export growth into its structural components, we find that regional as well as sectoral shifts of emerging economies into more trade intensive activities account for a large part of the increase in world export volume. Once we move the analysis to the level of individual industries, we also find that trade (i.e. exports in our case) does not 'over-react' to output growth. Hence, the often cited rising elasticity of global trade to income can in fact also be explained by changes in the country and industry composition of global trade with more strongly growing economies moving rapidly into more trade-intensive activities, with the elasticity of trade to income at the sectoral level remaining well below one.
Visitors who downloaded this publication/presentation also downloaded:
|
Reforming innovation systems in BY, KAZ and UA: Lost in Transition/Translation?” (by Hannes Leo) wiiw Seminar, 15 October 2012, 5 p.m., Venue: wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna DETAILS |
|
What went wrong in Slovenia and how to get out of the mess? (by Joze P. Damijan) wiiw Seminar Series 'EU in Crisis' 08 October 2012, 5 p.m., Venue: wiiw, 1060 Vienna, Rahlgasse 3 DETAILS |
|
Monthly Report No. 11/2012 (by Vasily Astrov, Vladimir Gligorov, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Olga Pindyuk and Hermine Vidovic) Leon Podkaminer (ed) wiiw Monthly Report No. 11, November 2012 40 pages including 18 Tables DETAILS |
