The present economic crisis bears all the familiar hallmarks of the financial, debt-related and structural aspects of current account crises. All these aspects have lasting level effects and recovery can be very protracted. Export-led growth was an important feature of the recovery period 2010-2011, yet significant inter-country differences persisted. A few countries with severe pre-crisis imbalances (Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic states) enjoyed reasonable export growth over that period, while other structurally weak economies on the European periphery (Western Balkan countries and the Southern EU) fared badly in that respect. The latter group of countries will continue to lag behind also in the forecast period 2012-2014, while some of the Central European economies (Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia) will manage to stay out of the vicious circle of low growth, high interest rates and unsustainable debt. These three countries, as well as the Baltic states, are expected to grow by about 3% in the years to come (still significantly below the trend growth rates before the crisis). The remaining EU new member states as well as the Western Balkan countries will achieve only about half of this growth. Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will grow by rates of up to 5%....more

Higher global grain output but still fairly high food prices (by Zdenek Lukas; pp. 1-4) Keywords: agricultural production, demand for food, food prices, biofuels Countries covered: Wider Europe Topics: Sectoral studies The speed of catch-up depends on human capital (by Roman Stöllinger; pp. 5-9) Keywords: catch-up, human capital, growth accounting, threshold regressions Countries covered: non-specific Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Two transitions: a brief on analyses and policies for MENA and CESEE (by Vladimir Gligorov; pp. 10-12) Keywords: transition, ...more

In 2009, Latin America was sucked into the financial crisis which, following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, echoed around the globe and shook and shocked the entire global financial system. As a consequence, Latin America experienced a slump in real GDP growth, a drop in exports and a collapse in inward FDI flows. Against that backdrop, the paper sheds light on the effects the global financial crisis had on firms’ access to financing as well as on their funding strategies of investment projects. The analysis uses data collected as part of the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES) component o...more

This paper discusses the transition agenda and provides the key economic characteristics of selected Middle East and North Africa countries (MENA) in comparison with selected Central, East and Southeast European countries (CESEE). We intend to identify some regularities in transition processes and to draw policy lessons for MENA countries. Among the key challenges facing the MENA region are job creation, fighting corruption, public sector reforms and trade diversification; the way towards a functioning market economy should not necessarily be as long and controversial as in the CESEE. MENA cou...more

Hungary suffers from a severe lack of credibility (by Sándor Richter; pp. 1-2) Keywords: sovereign default, IMF Countries covered: Hungary Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Russia's WTO accession: impacts on Austria (by Vasily Astrov; pp. 3-11) Keywords: WTO, trade, FDI Countries covered: Russia, Austria Topics: International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI The impact of customs procedures on business performance: evidence from Kosovo (by Mario Holzner and Florin Peci; pp. 12-16) Keywords: customs procedures, trade facilitation, business performance Countrie...more

Poland: new government, but not-so-new policy? (by Leon Podkaminer; pp. 1-2 ) Keywords: fiscal policy, fiscal consolidation Countries covered: Poland Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Banks in Poland should be under domestic control (by Stefan Kawalec; pp. 3-10) Keywords: banking system ownership, deleveraging Countries covered: Poland Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy; Sectoral studies Bulgaria: fiscal space and competitiveness (by Vladimir Gligorov and Michael Landesmann; pp. 11-17) Keywords: competitiveness, fiscal policy Countries covered: Bulgaria ...more

Policy frameworks of the IMF, the World Bank, and the EU are discussed in order to come up with criteria of macroeconomic and financial stability and sustainability for Future Member States of the EU (candidate and potential candidate countries). The key deficiency of the EU policy framework is that it lacks a short-term stabilization policy model and instruments for adjustment, such as the IMF. It also lacks an appropriate model for investment support, though not necessarily the funds if not the instruments. The paper suggests a set of criteria for surveillance....more

Albania: candidate? not yet (by Mario Holzner; pp. 1-3) Keywords: economic forecasts, GDP growth, inflation Countries covered: Albania Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Bosnia and Herzegovina: slow motion mode perpetuating (by Josef Pöschl; pp. 4-6) Keywords: economic forecasts, GDP growth, inflation Countries covered: Bosnia and Herzegovina Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Croatia: recovery delayed (by Hermine Vidovic; pp. 7-9) Keywords: economic forecasts, GDP growth, inflation Countries covered: Croatia Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy K...more

Bulgaria: recovery is losing steam (by Anton Mihailov; pp. 1-3) Keywords: economic forecasts, GDP growth, inflation Countries covered: Bulgaria Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Czech Republic: untimely austerity, uncertain exports (by Leon Podkaminer; pp. 4-6) Keywords: economic forecasts, GDP growth, inflation Countries covered: Czech Republic Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Hungary: creditless near-stagnation (by Sándor Richter; pp. 7-10) Keywords: economic forecasts, GDP growth, inflation Countries covered: Hungary Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis an...more

Fiscal constraint is potentially lax in catching-up economies, but it has not been abused by most countries considered in this paper. Fiscal risks are significant currently, but sustainability and structural balances are not threatened as a rule, if the return to potential growth rates is to be achieved in the medium run. The risks to countercyclical public financing could be discouraged by a comprehensive EU stabilization policy of some sort. Early euro adoption, absent credible stabilization policy, is not the first best policy option for fiscal policy targets....more

Main messages: Differentiated economic development in CESEE countries Strength/weakness of export sector is crucial External demand and deleveraging depress domestic demand Labour market problems increase SEE: Persistent solvency and liquidity problems Growth remains below potential absent external and policy improvements ...more

Main messages: Differentiated economic development in CESEE countries Strength/weakness of export sector is crucial External demand and deleveraging depress domestic demand Labour market problems increase SEE: Persistent solvency and liquidity problems Growth remains below potential absent external and policy improvements ...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled New Divide(s) in Europe?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. The present economic crisis bears all the familiar hallmarks of the financial, debt-related and structural aspects of current account crises. All these aspects have lasting level effects and recovery can be very protracted. Export-led growth was an important feature of the recovery period 2010-2011, yet signi...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

In a special chapter ("Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging") of the wiiw Forecast "Recovery: Limp and Battered", the debt developments of the private (households, corporate) and public sectors before and after the start of the financial crisis are examined and compared with those in the GIPS countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain). The burden of the build-up of private sector debt before the crisis has important consequences for spending and savings behaviour of households and enterprises and hence for the development of domestic demand (consumption and investment). In this resp...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

In einem speziellen Kapitel („Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging“) des Konjunkturberichtes "Recovery: Limp and Battered" wird die Verschuldungsdynamik nach Sektoren (Haushalte, Unternehmen, Staat) vor und nach dem Ausbruch der Finanzkrise untersucht und mit den GIPS-Ländern (Griechenland, Irland, Portugal, Spanien) verglichen. Die Last der privaten Verschuldung hat wichtige Konsequenzen für das Ausgaben- und Sparverhalten des Haushalts- und Unternehmenssektors und damit für die Entwicklung der Inlandsnachfrage (Konsum und Investitionen). Dabei zeigen sich sehr unterschiedliche Muste...more

The free movement of persons is a fundamental right guaranteed to European Union (EU) citizens which is about to change not only the size of migration flows but also the behavior of migrants regarding the duration of stay. In our empirical analysis we show that migrants who intend to live only temporary in Germany are more likely to remit a higher amount of money. As we have seen in the UK, strong remittances flows provoke fears among natives of a loss in domestic purchasing power. Using a general equilibrium model with altruistic households and imperfect labor markets, we show that Germany wi...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery – in Low Gear across Tough Terrain, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. All Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) countries will return to growth in 2011. The post-crisis GDP growth will be slower than before and not suffice to generate additional jobs. The role of external demand gradually weakens, while both household consumption and gross fixed inves...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Will exports prevail over austerity?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe, and China The Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) economies will experience on average a minor rebound of economic growth to 1% in 2010 which will speed up to 2.5% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012. GDP growth will be higher in the CIS countries and in Turkey, about average in the Central European N...more

Bart Los, University of Groningen, Groningen Growth and Development Centre R&D activities by one industry can have positive effects on the productivity performance of other industries, as a consequence of technology spillovers. As revealed by Wolfgang Keller in the late 1990s, severe multicollinearity problems have precluded the identification of industries that have generated the most productive technology spillovers, despite a number of sophisticated attempts. Consequently, we do not know which industries should be targeted for technology policy. This paper proposes an alternative estimat...more

Doris A. Oberdabernig, University of Innsbruck The focus of this work is to measure the effects of Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on poverty and income distribution. This study tries to estimate the impacts of SAPs on a variety of poverty indicators controlling for nonrandom selection. We make use of the matching method to test for differences in poverty indicators and GINI coefficients for countries participating in IMF agreements and countries which do not. Performing Heckman regressions we study the effects in more detail. We control for ...more

Cyrille Schwellnus, OECD (with Jens Arnold) This paper uses a stratified sample of firms across Western Europe over the period 1996-2004 to test for the existence of a link between corporate taxation and productivity. Corporate taxes may reduce incentives for productivity-enhancing innovations by reducing their post-tax returns, and may reduce incentives for risk taking by firms. In addition, corporate taxes can increase the user cost of capital and reduce incentives to invest in physical capital, which may affect productivity through technological progress embodied in new physical capital...more

Christian Busch ETH Zurich This paper investigates the contributions of institutions and export concentration in determining aggregate volatility. Geographically disadvantaged countries often experience a concentrated export structure which makes them more vulnerable to external shocks. Based on a gravity regression, a measure of export concentration is constructed which is based entirely on geographical characteristics. However, since export concentration ratios are not additively separable across countries we use an inequality decomposition method in order to obtain an aggregate measure o...more

Octavio Fernández Amador (with Jesús Crespo Cuaresma) University of Innsbruck We analyse the dynamics of the standard deviation of business cycles across euro area countries in order to evaluate the patterns of cyclical convergence in the European Monetary Union (EMU) for the period 1960-2008. Based on SVAR models à la Blanchard and Quah (1989), we study the pattern of cyclical synchronization by applying the methodology put forward by Crespo-Cuaresma and Fernández-Amador (2009), which makes use of sigma-convergence methods to identify synchronization patterns in business cycle data. This a...more

Christian Hepenstrick, University of Zurich (UZH) This paper develops a Ricardian trade model that accounts for the empirically observed positive relation between the extensive margin of a bilateral trade flow (measured as the number of goods categories with positive volumes) and the per-capita incomes of the trading partners. The central mechanism is that richer agents consume a wider set of varieties, which leads to a positive relation between per-capita income of the importer and the extensive margin. The positive effect of exporter per-capita income, corresponding to the standard model,...more

Alex Mourmouras, IMF (with Steven H. Russell) Seminar organized in cooperation with the Joint Vienna Institute We study a simple neoclassical model of investment in a developing country, modified to allow for long-term projects and short-term debt. Early signals indicating low productivity of investment may lead creditors to call loans in early. In such a crisis, firms protected by limited liability default and liquidate capital, even though they do so at a loss (a "fire sale"). We show that short-term debt financing is beneficial in good (normal) times: when there is no adverse signal, ...more