The European Union and the MENA countries: fostering North-South economic integration (by Sándor Richter; pp. 1-5) Keywords: North-South, economic integration Countries covered: European Union, MENA Topics: Labour, Migration and Income Distribution Europe's position in trade in knowledge-intensive business services (by Joseph Francois and Olga Pindyuk; pp. 6-12) Keywords: trade, knowledge-intensive business services Countries covered: European Union, OECD, East Asia Topics: International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI What kind of socio-economic order do we need in Euro...more

The present economic crisis bears all the familiar hallmarks of the financial, debt-related and structural aspects of current account crises. All these aspects have lasting level effects and recovery can be very protracted. Export-led growth was an important feature of the recovery period 2010-2011, yet significant inter-country differences persisted. A few countries with severe pre-crisis imbalances (Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic states) enjoyed reasonable export growth over that period, while other structurally weak economies on the European periphery (Western Balkan countries and the Southern EU) fared badly in that respect. The latter group of countries will continue to lag behind also in the forecast period 2012-2014, while some of the Central European economies (Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia) will manage to stay out of the vicious circle of low growth, high interest rates and unsustainable debt. These three countries, as well as the Baltic states, are expected to grow by about 3% in the years to come (still significantly below the trend growth rates before the crisis). The remaining EU new member states as well as the Western Balkan countries will achieve only about half of this growth. Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will grow by rates of up to 5%....more

This paper discusses the transition agenda and provides the key economic characteristics of selected Middle East and North Africa countries (MENA) in comparison with selected Central, East and Southeast European countries (CESEE). We intend to identify some regularities in transition processes and to draw policy lessons for MENA countries. Among the key challenges facing the MENA region are job creation, fighting corruption, public sector reforms and trade diversification; the way towards a functioning market economy should not necessarily be as long and controversial as in the CESEE. MENA cou...more

Hungary suffers from a severe lack of credibility (by Sándor Richter; pp. 1-2) Keywords: sovereign default, IMF Countries covered: Hungary Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Russia's WTO accession: impacts on Austria (by Vasily Astrov; pp. 3-11) Keywords: WTO, trade, FDI Countries covered: Russia, Austria Topics: International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI The impact of customs procedures on business performance: evidence from Kosovo (by Mario Holzner and Florin Peci; pp. 12-16) Keywords: customs procedures, trade facilitation, business performance Countrie...more

Poland: new government, but not-so-new policy? (by Leon Podkaminer; pp. 1-2 ) Keywords: fiscal policy, fiscal consolidation Countries covered: Poland Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Banks in Poland should be under domestic control (by Stefan Kawalec; pp. 3-10) Keywords: banking system ownership, deleveraging Countries covered: Poland Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy; Sectoral studies Bulgaria: fiscal space and competitiveness (by Vladimir Gligorov and Michael Landesmann; pp. 11-17) Keywords: competitiveness, fiscal policy Countries covered: Bulgaria ...more

We study firm heterogeneity in a specific factors model to address the effect of factor mobility on reallocation gains from trade. A model is proposed with Melitz-type firm heterogeneity with two sectors, two countries and two fixed factors and one factor mobile across sectors. Equilibrium in each sector can be concisely represented by a demand and supply equation and an FE and ZCP condition. Varying the substitution elasticity between the fixed and mobile factor, we show that the welfare gains from trade liberalization are larger in countries with lower substitution elasticity. Furthermore, i...more

Import intensities of production in the New EU Member States in 1995 and 2006 (by Leon Podkaminer; pp. 1-5) Keywords: import intensity, trade, input-output Countries covered: New EU Member States, China, Turkey, Japan, Russia, USA Topics: International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI A note on social indicators for MENA and transition countries (by Mario Holzner; pp. 6 7) Keywords: unemployment, inequality, migration Countries covered: Middle East and North Africa Topics: Labour, Migration and Income Distribution Three crises (by Vladimir Gligorov; pp. 8-10) Keywords: debt crisis...more

This paper aims to identify formal and informal institutional factors in customs procedures and their impact on the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) involved in international trade in Kosovo based on a questionnaire conducted in 2009. The econometric findings show that one of the most important obstacles encountered by SMEs are regular appeals against customs decisions that are assumed to be inter alia a consequence of frequent changes in over-complicated laws and regulations. However, there is a positive and significant effect of the formal customs institutions that fa...more

MENA in transition: any lessons from CESEE? (by Peter Havlik and Sándor Richter; pp. 1-7) Keywords: MENA, transition Countries covered: MENA, CESEE Topics: Other The EU and Russia: both important for Ukraine (by Vasily Astrov; pp. 8-9) Keywords: Ukraine, trade association, Russia, EU Countries covered: Ukraine, Russia, EU Topics: International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI; Other What price nationalism? Economic consequences of the break-up of Yugoslavia (by Vladimir Gligorov; pp. 10-13) Keywords: Yugoslavia break-up, post-Yugoslav countries Countries covered: Slovenia, Croati...more

In the wake of the ‘Arab Spring’ several observers compared the changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to the transition of the former communist countries in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) to parliamentary democracy and market economy starting two decades ago. Relying on the wiiw’s long standing experience in analysing both the centrally planned economic systems and the institutional and economic aspects of transition, the following Policy Note attempts – without claiming to have a detailed knowledge regarding MENA countries at the moment - to find poss...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled New Divide(s) in Europe?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. The present economic crisis bears all the familiar hallmarks of the financial, debt-related and structural aspects of current account crises. All these aspects have lasting level effects and recovery can be very protracted. Export-led growth was an important feature of the recovery period 2010-2011, yet signi...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

In a special chapter ("Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging") of the wiiw Forecast "Recovery: Limp and Battered", the debt developments of the private (households, corporate) and public sectors before and after the start of the financial crisis are examined and compared with those in the GIPS countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain). The burden of the build-up of private sector debt before the crisis has important consequences for spending and savings behaviour of households and enterprises and hence for the development of domestic demand (consumption and investment). In this resp...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

In einem speziellen Kapitel („Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging“) des Konjunkturberichtes "Recovery: Limp and Battered" wird die Verschuldungsdynamik nach Sektoren (Haushalte, Unternehmen, Staat) vor und nach dem Ausbruch der Finanzkrise untersucht und mit den GIPS-Ländern (Griechenland, Irland, Portugal, Spanien) verglichen. Die Last der privaten Verschuldung hat wichtige Konsequenzen für das Ausgaben- und Sparverhalten des Haushalts- und Unternehmenssektors und damit für die Entwicklung der Inlandsnachfrage (Konsum und Investitionen). Dabei zeigen sich sehr unterschiedliche Muste...more

The rapid growth of China in the last thirty years has had a very strong impact on the world economy. Having gone through a rapid process of structural transformation as well as international integration, China has recently improved quantity and quality of its exports. Its market share has increased dramatically, so that in 2009 China overtook Germany to become the first world exporters of goods. A recent ample literature has been discussing the likelihood of this upgrade resulting in a change in Chinese comparative advantage towards more sophisticated productions and therefore whether there are countries/sectors more subject to increased Chinese competition. ...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) presents an analysis of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 20 Central, East and Southeast European countries based on the latest update of its database. FDI is still of great importance for the development of CEECs especially as the domestic engines of economic growth are still weak, and fiscal consolidation drags on many of the economies. The economic recovery that has started in the region is mainly based on external demand, which has upgraded the role of foreign investors whose subsidiaries produce the main part of exp...more

Based on recent approaches of measuring the factor content of trade when intermediates are traded we decompose value added trade and its components like capital and labour and further subcomponents (ICT and Non-ICT capital, educational attainment categories) distinguishing between direct, indirect and re-imports and –exports of value added and trade in factors. This adds to the literature by simultaneously considering both exports and imports allowing to focus on patterns and dynamics of net value added trade and its components rather than vertical specialisation patterns based on exports. As an extension we differentiate net value added trade flows resulting from trade in intermediate and final goods. The analysis can further be broken down to the industry level and bilateral trade relations. Empirically we present results of an application of the proposed decomposition method based on the recently compiled World Input-Output Database (WIOD) covering 40 countries and 35 industries over the period 1995-2006. We show that direct value added exports and imports dominate but the indirect part was increasing over time. This also holds for trade in factors with for example higher increases observed for high-educated labour. Patterns of trade in net value added closely resemble net trade flows but there are distinct patterns when looking at individual factors. For example, NAFTA countries are net exporters of high-educated labour mostly to EU-15 but have increasingly become net importers of low-educated labour from China. ...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery – in Low Gear across Tough Terrain, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. All Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) countries will return to growth in 2011. The post-crisis GDP growth will be slower than before and not suffice to generate additional jobs. The role of external demand gradually weakens, while both household consumption and gross fixed inves...more

In the process of catching up to the EU income levels, emerging European economies built up external imbalances and attracted large capital inflows prior to the global financial crisis. Many attribute the severity of the crisis to excessive capital inflows. This paper examines the effect of structural distribution of FDI on external vulnerability - trade account balance in particular - to see if a concentration in FDI in nontradables leads to large external imbalance as is often perceived. Our study finds that this is indeed the case: trade account deficit is reduced by 0.1-0.2 per cent of GDP when a share of tradable FDI to total FDI increases by 1 per cent. We also study what determines the pattern of sectoral distribution of FDI across countries, and draw policy implications for more stable and sustainable growth strategy. ...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Will exports prevail over austerity?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe, and China The Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) economies will experience on average a minor rebound of economic growth to 1% in 2010 which will speed up to 2.5% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012. GDP growth will be higher in the CIS countries and in Turkey, about average in the Central European N...more

Christian Hepenstrick, University of Zurich (UZH) This paper develops a Ricardian trade model that accounts for the empirically observed positive relation between the extensive margin of a bilateral trade flow (measured as the number of goods categories with positive volumes) and the per-capita incomes of the trading partners. The central mechanism is that richer agents consume a wider set of varieties, which leads to a positive relation between per-capita income of the importer and the extensive margin. The positive effect of exporter per-capita income, corresponding to the standard model,...more

wiiw presents its new analysis of FDI developments in 20 Central, East and Southeast European countries, based on the latest update of the wiiw FDI Database. German: Das wiiw präsentiert seine aktuelle Analyse der Entwicklung der Auslandsinvestitionen in Zentral-, Ost- und Südosteuropa, sowie den Update der "FDI Database" mit detaillierten Statistiken über Auslandsinvestitionen in 20 Ländern....more